The war between Iran and Israel has entered its third week with no signs of ceasefire, as Iranian naval forces on Monday moved to effectively block commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint that carries roughly 21 percent of the world’s petroleum supplies.
Brent crude futures surged past $142 a barrel in early Asian trading Tuesday, their highest level since 2012, while the Philippine peso weakened to 61.40 against the dollar as risk sentiment deteriorated globally.
The Blockade
Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speedboats and naval frigates have been shadowing, boarding, and in some cases firing warning shots at commercial vessels attempting to transit the 33-kilometer-wide strait between Oman and Iran. At least four tankers have been forced to turn back since Sunday, and Lloyd’s of London has suspended new war-risk insurance policies for vessels entering the Persian Gulf.
“The Islamic Republic will exercise its sovereign rights over waters adjacent to our territory,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement broadcast on state television. “Any foreign military attempt to reopen the strait will be considered an act of war.”
Israel Responds
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed Tuesday that they had struck three more Iranian nuclear-linked facilities overnight — including what the IDF described as a uranium enrichment centrifuge hall at Fordow, buried approximately 80 meters beneath a mountain. Iran’s Civil Defense Organization said two of the strikes caused “limited structural damage” but denied any disruption to its nuclear program.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Knesset early Tuesday, warning that Israel “will not stop until Iran’s nuclear threat is permanently dismantled.”
US, China, Russia at the UN
The United Nations Security Council convened an emergency session in New York at 4 p.m. local time Monday. The United States, France, and the United Kingdom introduced a resolution demanding an immediate end to the Hormuz blockade, calling it a violation of international law and the 1958 Geneva Convention on the Territorial Sea.
Russia and China — both permanent members with veto power — indicated they would block any resolution authorizing military force to reopen the strait, though Beijing issued a separate statement expressing “serious concern” about disruptions to oil shipments upon which its own economy depends.
Impact on the Philippines
For the Philippines, the stakes are significant. The country imports nearly all of its oil, and the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) warned Tuesday of possible electricity rate adjustments of between ₱0.80 and ₱1.20 per kilowatt-hour if the crisis persists beyond two weeks.
Department of Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla said the government has directed the National Power Corporation to accelerate deployment of floating solar barges on Laguna de Bay as a contingency, and urged LGUs to implement odd-even vehicle schemes in major urban centers.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli Remolona Jr. told reporters the central bank was “closely monitoring” foreign exchange movements and stood ready to intervene in the currency market to prevent disorderly trading.
“The Philippines cannot afford complacency. We must diversify our energy mix now — not when the crisis has already landed on our shores.”
— DOE Secretary Raphael Lotilla
What Happens Next
Military analysts say the US Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Bahrain, has the firepower to force the strait open within hours but that doing so risks triggering a direct US-Iran conflict — something the Biden administration’s successors have been reluctant to invite in an election year.
Back-channel diplomacy involving Qatar as an intermediary is reportedly ongoing, with a preliminary framework for a temporary ceasefire under discussion. However, neither Jerusalem nor Tehran has publicly acknowledged any negotiations.
Markets will watch Thursday’s OPEC emergency virtual summit for signals on whether Gulf producers will use overland pipelines — most notably the East-West Pipeline in Saudi Arabia — to offset the Hormuz disruption. Saudi Arabia has the capacity to route up to 5 million barrels per day via that bypass, which would substantially ease supply fears.
The Point News will continue to update this story as developments warrant.